See what’s coming

It already happened somewhere else

Belgium told 1,574 companies to get certified. Two firms can issue that certificate. Neither can issue the one those companies need. Nobody sold that gap, because nobody looked.

We read what happened when a dated event landed in another country, then work out what the next one opens. Before the date.

This week

Viewing that can move to the weather two days out

Demand lands where conditions turn out good, not where they were forecast good. Anyone with fixed capacity in one town carries the whole risk of a cloudy morning.

89/100 after pruningESeffective 2027-08-02

How it works

Find the dateFrom the authority, not the news. A gazette, a tax office, an observatory. No source, no event.
Find where it already happened5 precedents, 31 recorded outcomes, every one with a link. No link, we bin it.
Cut hard, then say what would kill itWe generate a lot and keep almost none. Whatever survives comes with the one thing that would prove it wrong.

One thing we learned

The regulator spends the first cycle on education rather than punishment. One wrote a two year fine moratorium into the statute itself. Early fines are a bad predictor of whether a regime has teeth.

Seen in 3 of the countries we studied

Argue with us

We count openings after cutting, not before. Three survive, the page says three.

Seen once is labelled seen once. One country is not a rule.

If nobody measures something, we say nobody measures it. That is usually the opening.

We got two fines wrong last week. The correction is still on the page.

The archive

Everything we hold, with filters for vertical, country, timeframe and what kind of work it opens, is in the library.